Current Usage Rates and Other Thoughts

I went pretty long in my last post, so this one will be short and sweet. I did want to provide a few final notes that didn't make the earlier piece. First of all, I wanted to provide the usage rates for City players this season, as that was requested by a few commentators. The current season's stats (through 30 games) are below for all players above my arbitrary 750 minute cutoff:

Player	Minutes	Possessions Used	Usage Rate	Positive Outcomes	Negative Outcomes	Ratio
De Bruyne	1555	328	17.56%	100	228	30.49%
Silva	1670	286	14.26%	90	196	31.45%
Kolarov	1799	293	13.55%	68	225	23.21%
Toure	2030	330	13.52%	115	215	34.89%
Bony	1034	150	12.07%	66	84	44.02%
Navas	1646	224	11.33%	67	157	29.91%
Clichy	817	107	10.91%	12	95	11.21%
Sterling	1787	234	10.90%	86	148	36.76%
Sagna	2244	286	10.61%	29	257	10.14%
Aguero	1777	225	10.52%	106	119	47.22%
Fernandinho	2292	251	9.11%	49	202	19.54%
Otamendi	2041	202	8.24%	29	173	14.36%
Kompany	1179	112	7.91%	13	99	11.61%
Demichelis	986	83	7.01%	9	74	10.84%
Fernando	1210	92	6.33%	20	72	21.74%
Mangala	1289	80	5.17%	4	76	5.00%
Hart	2479	122	4.10%	2	120	1.64%

One thing that jumped out to me is how far Aguero's usage rate has fallen from 2013-14. As a commenter mentioned on Twitter, his key passes per 90 minutes have fallen dramatically this season, and that appears to be a big reason for the dropoff. That may be because his strike partner of sorts is Silva, who is definitely a pass-first player. Since this only gives credit for the final ball, it may be that Aguero isn't really less involved in the play, it's just that Silva isn't taking the shots Dzeko or Negredo took. Also for those who think injuries have been the primary factor this season, it's worth pointing out that Aguero has played 200 more minutes this season than he did in the entire 2013-14 campaign.

Going along with the general theme that the offense is less potent this season, it's worth noting that the positive relationship between usage rate and having a higher percentage of positive outcomes (see the "Ratio" column) has decreased. In 2013-14, the r-squared was .78 and it has dropped to .41 this season. That means that we're doing a worse job this year of getting the ball to players who can do the most with it. Aguero and Sterling stand out as two players with low usage rates but very good percentage of positive outcomes on the possessions they use. For Bony defenders (are there any besides me and Mike Goodman?), he has a high ratio of positive outcomes and has been more involved with play than Aguero. However, this (simple) model doesn't distinguish between shots, so the one he almost hit the corner flag counts just as much as his goals. Still, I don't think you can really say he's the problem offensively.